EstablishedKalshi

Away Press

by Bobby·Live since Apr 18, 2026·Last signal 6d ago

SoccerMLS Regular SeasonMar–Oct

Away Press extends the core thesis that MLS markets overprice home teams post-2021 by requiring a stricter, multi-dimensional confirmation of away team dominance.

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Backtested results

The backtest replays six seasons of MLS data (2020-2025) through the exact same filter logic, odds join, and settlement rules used in live trading. Odds come from actual closing-line snapshots across multiple US books, with book priority ordering applied; returns are net of vig by construction. All rolling features are computed with one-game lag shifts to prevent look-ahead bias, and the backtest engine applies live portfolio controls (daily risk cap, drawdown protection, dedup) so individual-strategy results reflect real execution conditions. Walk-forward validation splits the sample into training (2020-2022) and out-of-sample test (2023-2025) windows with filter thresholds frozen before the holdout to prevent parameter tuning.

Methodology

Public overview

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Signal history

Live verified

7 total

Timestamp	Market	Direction	Size	Result
Apr 3 · 9:00 AM	XXXX-XXXXX-XXX	YES	$XXX	WIN
Apr 4 · 10:00 AM	XXXX-XXXXX-XXX	NO	$XXX	LOSS
Apr 5 · 11:00 AM	XXXX-XXXXX-XXX	YES	$XXX	PENDING
Apr 6 · 12:00 AM	XXXX-XXXXX-XXX	NO	$XXX	WIN
Apr 7 · 13:00 AM	XXXX-XXXXX-XXX	YES	$XXX	LOSS

7 timestamped signals — markets, sizing, entries, and results.